Antonelli Takes US Grand Prix Pole and Can Win the F1 Title Tonight: Grid, Title Maths and Start Times

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Can Antonelli win the title on Sunday?

Yes, and the maths is now simple enough to follow from the first lap. Kimi Antonelli starts the United States Grand Prix from pole position, and if he wins the race, he will be world champion provided two other results also go his way: his Mercedes team mate George Russell must finish ninth or lower, and Lewis Hamilton must finish fifth or lower. That is the only title clinching combination in Austin. Anything other than an Antonelli win means the championship stays open, no matter where Russell and Hamilton finish. Antonelli leads Russell by 102 points and Hamilton by 111 points going into the race, and after Austin there will be five rounds left, worth a maximum of 130 points including fastest lap points where they apply. A win for Antonelli, worth 25 points, combined with Russell finishing ninth or lower, worth two points or fewer, and Hamilton finishing fifth or lower, worth 10 points or fewer, would put Antonelli out of reach. The grid makes that combination plausible, but far from certain. Russell starts sixth, not ninth, so he would need to lose at least three places during the race for Antonelli to clinch. Hamilton starts fifth, so he would need to lose at least one place. Both drivers are in cars capable of holding their positions, and both have every incentive to fight for every point. Verstappen, starting second, also has a direct interest in stopping Antonelli, because a Verstappen win would end the title question for this weekend on its own. Antonelli would become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history if he seals the title in Austin, beating Sebastian Vettel's record, and Italy's first champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953. That is the prize on offer tonight. It is also why the first corner at Circuit of The Americas, a steep uphill left hander where the whole field funnels together, will be watched so closely.

How did Antonelli take pole?

Antonelli took pole with a lap of 1 minute 34.035 seconds in the final part of qualifying on Saturday 24 October. He beat Verstappen by 0.179 seconds, with Verstappen's Red Bull team mate Isack Hadjar a career best third, 0.215 seconds behind. Charles Leclerc was fourth for Ferrari, 0.232 seconds behind, Hamilton was fifth, 0.276 seconds behind, and Russell was sixth, 0.441 seconds behind. The session was not clean. Antonelli set his benchmark early in the final part of qualifying, and as track temperatures cooled, neither Verstappen nor the chasing pack could improve on their second runs. Antonelli described the session afterwards as very tough with the wind, gusty and unpredictable, and said he was happy to stick the car on pole. Verstappen said his first two qualifying segments were nice, but in the final segment he simply did not have the balance or the grip, with no mistakes but no pace either. Ferrari's disappointment was the other big story of qualifying. Leclerc had led Friday practice, Hamilton had topped final practice on Saturday, and Ferrari looked like the team to beat for pole. In qualifying, that pace disappeared. Leclerc and Hamilton could only manage fourth and fifth, and they will start behind both Red Bulls and behind Antonelli. Ferrari have not taken a pole position this season, and Austin was supposed to be their best chance to change that. Instead, they start the race chasing the two teams ahead of them. McLaren also had a mixed session. Oscar Piastri qualified seventh, and Lando Norris was initially sixth before his final lap was deleted for exceeding track limits, dropping him to eighth. Arvid Lindblad qualified ninth for Racing Bulls, and Liam Lawson completed the top 10 without setting a time in the final segment. That top 10 is the starting point for the title maths, and it is worth reading in full, because every place from sixth downwards matters for Russell and Hamilton.

What is the full starting grid?

The full classification from qualifying, confirmed by the FIA, is as follows. Grid penalties, if any are applied after qualifying, would change the order, so check the final grid before lights out. At the time of writing, this is the qualifying order. | Position | Driver | Team | Qualifying time | Gap to pole | | 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 1:34.035 | - | | 2 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1:34.214 | Plus 0.179 | | 3 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull | 1:34.250 | Plus 0.215 | | 4 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1:34.267 | Plus 0.232 | | 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 1:34.311 | Plus 0.276 | | 6 | George Russell | Mercedes | 1:34.476 | Plus 0.441 | | 7 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1:34.803 | Plus 0.768 | | 8 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 1:35.049 | Plus 1.014 | | 9 | Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 1:36.049 | Plus 2.014 | | 10 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | No time | - | | 11 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1:35.080 | - | | 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 1:35.158 | - | | 13 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 1:35.691 | - | | 14 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 1:35.722 | - | | 15 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1:35.818 | - | | 16 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | 1:36.031 | - | | 17 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | 1:36.531 | - | | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1:36.677 | - | | 19 | Carlos Sainz | Williams | 1:36.770 | - | | 20 | Alexander Albon | Williams | 1:36.967 | - | | 21 | Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 1:37.433 | - | | 22 | Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 1:37.523 | - | Three things stand out from that grid. First, the top six are separated by less than half a second, so the race start and the first stint will matter more than pure pace. Second, Russell starts sixth, which is inside the top eight, so Antonelli needs Russell to drop places, not just hold position. Third, Hamilton starts fifth, which is exactly the position he must lose for Antonelli to clinch. If Hamilton holds fifth and Antonelli wins, the title stays open. If Hamilton drops to sixth or lower and Russell drops to ninth or lower, Antonelli is champion.

What are the exact title maths for Austin?

The title maths for Austin can be stated in one paragraph, but it is worth breaking down, because fans often confuse the different combinations. Antonelli has 340 points. Russell has 238 points. Hamilton has 229 points. Verstappen has 221 points, Leclerc has 215 points, and Norris has 201 points. | Driver | Points before Austin | Gap to Antonelli | | Kimi Antonelli | 340 | - | | George Russell | 238 | 102 | | Lewis Hamilton | 229 | 111 | | Max Verstappen | 221 | 119 | | Charles Leclerc | 215 | 125 | | Lando Norris | 201 | 139 | After Austin, 125 points will remain if you count only race wins, or 130 points on the counting used by most previews, which includes fastest lap points. Either way, the key number is the gap Antonelli needs after the race. If Antonelli wins, he gains 25 points. If Russell finishes ninth, he gains two points, so Antonelli's lead over Russell grows by 23 points, to 125 points, which is enough to clinch on countback because Antonelli would have nine wins against Russell's maximum of eight. If Russell finishes eighth, he gains four points, so the lead grows by only 21 points, to 123 points, which is not enough. That is why ninth is the cutoff for Russell. For Hamilton, the cutoff is fifth. If Hamilton finishes fifth, he gains 10 points, so Antonelli's lead grows by 15 points, to 126 points, which is enough when combined with Russell finishing ninth or lower. If Hamilton finishes fourth, he gains 12 points, so the lead grows by only 13 points, to 124 points, which is not enough on the most commonly used counting. That is why the combination is always stated as Russell ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower, together with an Antonelli win. If Antonelli finishes second, he gains 18 points, and the title cannot be decided in Austin, even if Russell and Hamilton retire. If Antonelli retires, the title also stays open, and Russell and Hamilton would both gain ground. If Verstappen wins, the title stays open, and Verstappen would close the gap to Antonelli by at least seven points if Antonelli finishes second, or by 25 points if Antonelli retires.

When does the race start, and where can you watch it?

The United States Grand Prix starts at 15:00 local time in Austin on Sunday 25 October, which is Central Daylight Time. The race is 56 laps of the 5.513 kilometre Circuit of The Americas. The UK has moved back to Greenwich Mean Time on Sunday morning, while the United States stays on daylight time, so the UK start time is 20:00, not 21:00 as it would have been last weekend. | Location | Race start, Sunday 25 October | | Austin, Texas, CDT | 15:00 | | New York, Toronto, EDT | 16:00 | | Los Angeles, PDT | 13:00 | | London, GMT | 20:00 | | Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, Amsterdam, CET | 21:00 | | Karachi, PKT | 01:00 Monday 26 October | | Mumbai, IST | 01:30 Monday 26 October | | Sydney, AEDT | 07:00 Monday 26 October | In the UK, the race is live on Sky Sports F1, with build up from 18:30 and the race itself at 20:00. Channel 4 will show highlights after the race. In the United States, Apple TV is the exclusive home of Formula 1 in 2026, following the new broadcast deal that began this season. In Canada, TSN and RDS carry the race. In Germany, Sky Deutschland and RTL carry it. In France, Canal Plus carries it. In Italy, Sky Italia carries it. In Spain, DAZN carries it. In the Netherlands, Viaplay carries it. Elsewhere, F1 TV Pro streams every session live where it is available. The weather and the bumps are the two wild cards. Antonelli and Verstappen both spoke about the bumps at Austin earlier in the weekend, and the gusty wind in qualifying showed how quickly conditions can change. A safety car, a first corner incident, or a strategy gamble on tyres could all change the title maths in a single lap. That is why the race is worth watching live, even if you already know the pole sitter.

What happens if Antonelli does not clinch in Austin?

If Antonelli does not clinch in Austin, the championship moves to the next round with Antonelli still in a commanding position. He would still lead by more than 100 points in most scenarios, and he would still need only a handful of strong finishes to seal the title. Russell and Hamilton would both need Antonelli to have a bad weekend, and they would need to win races themselves, to have any realistic chance. For Verstappen, a win in Austin would be his fifth victory at this circuit, and it would keep his own outside title hopes alive, even if the maths is now very long. For Leclerc and Hamilton, a Ferrari win would be their first win of the season as a team in this context, and it would prove that Friday practice pace can be converted into race pace. For McLaren, a strong result for Piastri and Norris would help their constructors championship fight, even if the drivers title is now out of reach for both of them. The next race after Austin is the next step in the Americas triple header, and the championship will be decided there or in the following rounds if it is not decided tonight. But tonight is the first chance, and it is a real chance. Antonelli is on pole, he is in control of his own destiny, and he only needs two other results to go his way. That is as close as a 20 year old has ever been to a first world title on a Sunday night in Texas. Related: Verstappen on Austin bumps and US Grand Prix Friday verdict. Sources: FIA qualifying classification, Sky Sports F1 qualifying report, AFP reporting on Antonelli's pole and title permutations, Formula 1 United States Grand Prix schedule.