Antonelli Can Win the F1 Title in Mexico on Sunday: Two Points, Perez 300th Race and Full Weekend Times

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Mexico City is ready for a coronation, and the maths is almost insultingly simple. Kimi Antonelli arrives at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez with 365 points, 123 clear of his Mercedes team mate George Russell and 124 clear of Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton, with 125 points still available after Mexico. Finish ninth or higher on Sunday and the title is his, no matter what anyone else does. Finish lower, and he still wins unless Russell or Hamilton wins the race. That is why this weekend is being sold as a title weekend, not just another Grand Prix.

Antonelli would become the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history at 20 years and 68 days on race day, beating Sebastian Vettel's record of 23 years and 134 days by more than three years. He would also become Italy's first world champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953, ending a 73 year wait. Ferrari, famously, had the chance to sign Antonelli as a boy and considered him too young, according to former Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo in comments reported this week. Mercedes did sign him, and on Sunday that decision could be repaid with a championship.

How can Antonelli win the title in Mexico?

The title permutations, published by Reuters on 28 October, are clear enough to write on a ticket stub. Antonelli is champion on Sunday if he finishes in the top nine, which scores at least two points. If he finishes tenth, the title is still done provided Russell does not win. If Antonelli scores no points at all, he is still champion provided neither Russell nor Hamilton wins. Only a Russell win or a Hamilton win, combined with Antonelli scoring one point or fewer, sends the championship on to Sao Paulo.

That last point is the key to the whole weekend. Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris and everyone else can win in Mexico without changing the title outcome, because they are already out of the championship fight on points. Only Russell and Hamilton can delay it, and only by winning. Antonelli has won nine races this season, a total nobody else can equal, and he has been off the podium only three times, according to Reuters. One of those non podium finishes was fifth, and the other two were races where he failed to score, in Barcelona and Britain. Last season he started and finished sixth in Mexico, which would be more than enough this time.

Antonelli himself has struck a calm note. "We are very close but we will try to finish on a high, and hopefully we can clinch it very soon," he said in comments reported this week. He has also said he plans to keep his permanent race number 12 if he wins the title, rather than switching to number 1. That is a small detail, but it tells you something about a 20 year old who is not getting carried away by the occasion.

Who can stop Antonelli in Mexico?

In theory, Russell and Hamilton. In practice, both need a win and a bad day for Antonelli, and neither has looked like a race winner in recent weeks. Russell finished eighth at Austin after a five second penalty for gaining an advantage off track against Oscar Piastri on lap one. He told Sky Sports after Austin that he did not have answers for his lack of pace. Hamilton finished fourth at Austin in the upgraded Ferrari, behind Antonelli, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen, and he has been a contender in Mexico before, winning there in 2016 and 2019.

The more likely race winner, if Antonelli does not win it himself, is Verstappen. The four time champion has won five times in Mexico, in 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023, and he is chasing a return to form after Antonelli denied him a third win in a row at Austin. Reigning world champion Lando Norris won from pole in Mexico last year for McLaren, and Leclerc finished second at Austin in the upgraded Ferrari, so both are threats for the win even though they cannot win the title. For Antonelli, that is actually good news: a Verstappen, Leclerc or Norris win crowns him anyway, as long as he scores at least a point or finishes ninth or better.

The constructors championship is a different story. Mercedes lead with 607 points, Ferrari have 474, and Red Bull and McLaren are tied on 355 points. Mercedes could clinch the constructors title in Mexico, but AFP reporting this week describes that as a long shot that needs a perfect Mercedes afternoon and a terrible Ferrari afternoon. Brazil the following weekend looks much more likely for the team title. The drivers title, by contrast, is Antonelli's to lose.

Why is Perez 300th race such a big story?

Sergio Perez starts his 300th Grand Prix on Sunday, at home, for Cadillac, and that sentence alone would have sounded impossible two years ago. Perez, 36, missed the 2025 season after leaving Red Bull at the end of 2024. He returned with Cadillac, the newest team on the grid, and he has had a difficult season. Cadillac are still the only team without a point after 18 races, and Perez finished 19th at Austin, a lap down. His best home finish remains third in 2021.

None of that diminishes the milestone. Perez will become only the seventh driver in history to reach 300 race starts, and he gets to do it in front of his home crowd in Mexico City, on the weekend of the Day of the Dead celebrations. On Wednesday he drove a show run on Paseo de la Reforma in Mexico City, in front of thousands of fans, and on the same day he announced a contract extension that will keep him at Cadillac through to 2029. "How much has to happen that you make your 300th race at home," Perez said. "It is incredible. And to have all the people that have been with me since day one supporting me, all my sponsors, all my family, all my fans."

Perez's home race has produced some of his best moments, including third places in 2021 and 2022, and Mexico City always produces one of the loudest atmospheres of the season. The Foro Sol stadium section, where the track passes through a former baseball stadium, is one of the most distinctive parts of any circuit in the world. Even if Cadillac cannot fight for points, Perez will get a reception on Sunday that no other driver on the grid will match.

What makes Mexico City so hard for the cars?

Mexico City is the highest circuit on the Formula 1 calendar, at about 2,200 metres above sea level, and that changes everything. The air is thin, so the cars produce less downforce and the engines and brakes cool less efficiently. Teams run Monaco level downforce packages and still reach Monza style top speeds on the long main straight, because the thin air creates less drag. It is a unique engineering puzzle, and it often produces unexpected results.

The circuit is 4.304 kilometres long, the race is 71 laps, and the total distance is 305.584 kilometres. The race lap record is 1:17.774, set by Valtteri Bottas for Mercedes in 2021. Last year's race was won by Norris from pole, with a pole time of 1:15.586. The race has been won from pole in 2015, 2016, 2022, 2024 and 2025, so qualifying on Saturday matters, but the long run down to Turn 1 also gives the driver in second a real chance. Verstappen against Norris in 2024 showed how elbows out that first corner can be.

Weather should not be a factor. The forecast for qualifying and the race is dry and hot, with temperatures around 27 degrees Celsius and no rain expected. That is similar to Austin, where Antonelli controlled the race on a one stop strategy and finished 13 seconds clear of Leclerc. Expect another strategic race in Mexico, with tyre management at altitude a key factor.

When is the Mexico City Grand Prix and how can I watch it?

The Mexico City Grand Prix weekend runs from Friday 30 October to Sunday 1 November, with no sprint race. Session times below are given in London time first, because that is the simplest reference for most readers, then converted for Berlin and Paris, New York, Los Angeles and Karachi. Note the clock change trap: the United States leaves daylight time on Sunday morning, so New York moves from EDT to EST between qualifying and the race, while Europe is already on winter time.

| Session | Mexico City local | London GMT | Berlin and Paris CET | New York | Karachi PKT | | Practice 1, Friday 30 October | 12:30 | 18:30 | 19:30 | 14:30 EDT | 23:30 | | Practice 2, Friday 30 October | 16:00 | 22:00 | 23:00 | 18:00 EDT | 03:00 Saturday | | Practice 3, Saturday 31 October | 11:30 | 17:30 | 18:30 | 13:30 EDT | 22:30 | | Qualifying, Saturday 31 October | 15:00 | 21:00 | 22:00 | 17:00 EDT | 02:00 Sunday | | Race, Sunday 1 November, 71 laps | 14:00 | 20:00 | 21:00 | 15:00 EST | 01:00 Monday |

In the UK, every session is live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Sports Main Event, with highlights on Channel 4 after the race. In the United States, the weekend is exclusive to Apple TV, which now carries Formula 1 in a new F1 channel on the platform, with F1 TV Premium included. In Mexico, Televisa carries the race on free to air television and on pay television via Sky Sports on izzi and Sky Plus. In Canada, TSN carries the race. If you are watching from elsewhere, check your local Formula 1 broadcaster, because start times in the table above are session start times, not broadcast build up times.

Friday practice also features rookie outings, continuing the trend from Austin. Freddie Slater is due to make his Formula 1 practice debut for Audi, among other young drivers getting a run in first practice. Those sessions are worth watching for fans who follow the junior categories, because several of these drivers will be fighting for race seats in 2027.

What happens if Antonelli does not clinch it on Sunday?

If Russell or Hamilton wins and Antonelli scores one point or fewer, the championship goes to Sao Paulo on 6 to 8 November. That would set up a very different kind of pressure, with Antonelli needing only a handful of points in Brazil and the whole paddock talking about whether the youngest champion in history can handle a second match point. If Antonelli wins in Mexico, by contrast, the last four races become a celebration tour, with Mercedes able to focus fully on the constructors title and on 2027 development.

Either way, Mexico is the weekend where the championship stops being a maths problem and becomes a moment. Antonelli has dominated this season, with nine wins and a lead that has grown race by race since the summer. A ninth place finish, or even a point, is all he needs. The hardest part may be resisting the urge to win the race in style, when finishing ninth would be enough. Champions, though, rarely settle for ninth. Expect Antonelli to race to win, and expect Mexico City to celebrate him whether he finishes first or ninth.

Related live posts: Perez 300th Grand Prix in Mexico: Show Run Today, Cadillac First Points and Antonelli Title Watch and Antonelli Needs Just Two Points in Mexico to Become F1's Youngest Champion: Title Maths and Start Times

Sources: Reuters, Formula One statistics for Mexico City Grand Prix, 28 October 2026; AFP via Kuwait Times, Gulf Times and The Profiler, 28 to 29 October 2026; Sky Sports F1, Mexico City GP schedule, 26 October 2026; TSN, Mexico City Grand Prix schedule, 28 October 2026.